How we estimate mortgage rates

We do not invent rates and we do not buy them from a lead network. Our mortgage-rate estimates are assembled from the four public datasets below. Across the rest of the site, data pages are built from the ingested datasets listed further down, each stored with its observation date and shown with its source attached. Calculator results are computed from your inputs and a published formula, so they carry the formula and its constants rather than a dataset. If a figure looks wrong, tell us.

22

Public datasets ingested and cited

26

Scheduled refresh jobs registered

17 Sept

Most recent successful refresh

191,770

Data rows held across those datasets

The four sources

01

Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

Base 30-year fixed rate, updated weekly

The industry benchmark since 1971, surveyed across hundreds of lenders each week and redistributed through FRED. We store every observation, so each figure on the site carries its own observation date.

FRED · MORTGAGE30US
02

Fannie Mae Loan-Level Price Adjustment Matrix

Credit score and LTV adjustments, updated quarterly

A public PDF setting the pricing add-on for every credit band and loan-to-value band. We hold the current grid for conventional, FHA and VA loans, and VA loans correctly carry no credit-based adjustment.

Fannie Mae · LLPA Matrix
03

U.S. Treasury 10-year yield

Spread analysis, updated daily

Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury with a spread that widens when lenders price in risk. We show that spread so you can see whether today's rates are stretched or normal versus the ~1.7-point historical average.

FRED · DGS10
04

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Local income and home-value context, updated annually

Median household income, median home value and ownership rates for every state, county and ZIP code, used to make the default assumptions on our calculators match where you actually live.

Census · ACS

Data dictionary

Every dataset we ingest, with the table it lands in, the identifiers we pull, how often it refreshes, when it last refreshed successfully, how many rows we hold, what we change and what the data cannot tell you. Cadence, last run and row counts are read from the database at request time, so this page cannot claim a refresh that did not happen.

Federal Reserve macro and rate series

FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Stored in
market_series_obs
Series / identifiers
MORTGAGE30US, DGS10, DGS1, FEDFUNDS, CPIAUCSL, UNRATE, ICSA, CCSA and related
Vintage
Latest published observation per series
Refresh cadence
Every 12 hours
Last successful refresh
Thu, 17 Sep 2026 13:17:46 UTC
Rows held
24,691
Transformations
None. Values are stored exactly as published, with the source observation date.
Missing values
A missing observation is left absent; we never carry a previous value forward.
Outliers
Mortgage rates outside 1–20% are flagged and withheld from rate copy.
Known limitations
FRED redistributes other agencies' data; the observation date is the source's, not ours.

US Treasury I bonds and average interest rates

U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data
Stored in
treasury_rates
Series / identifiers
I-bond composite and fixed rates; average interest rates on marketable securities
Vintage
Latest release, semi-annual for I bonds
Refresh cadence
Every 1 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 22:16:59 UTC
Rows held
428
Transformations
None.
Missing values
Absent periods are left absent.
Outliers
Rates outside 0–20% are rejected at ingest.
Known limitations
I-bond composite rates change only twice a year and are not a market quote.

State unemployment rates

Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS
Stored in
state_data
Series / identifiers
LAUS state series, seasonally adjusted
Vintage
Latest monthly release
Refresh cadence
Every 1 days
Last successful refresh
Thu, 17 Sep 2026 05:17:18 UTC
Rows held
52
Transformations
None.
Missing values
States without a current print keep the previous published month, dated as such.
Outliers
Rates outside 0–30% are flagged and not published.
Known limitations
State-level only; county unemployment comes from the ACS and is a different vintage.

Metro consumer price indexes

Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI
Stored in
cpi_metro
Series / identifiers
CPI-U by metropolitan area
Vintage
Latest bi-monthly release per area
Refresh cadence
Every 3 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 08:17:02 UTC
Rows held
433
Transformations
Year-on-year percentage computed from index levels.
Missing values
Areas without a current print are omitted rather than interpolated.
Outliers
Year-on-year moves beyond ±25% are flagged for review.
Known limitations
BLS publishes most metros bi-monthly, so some areas lag by a month.
Stored in
cfpb_complaint_summary
Series / identifiers
Complaint counts by company, product and year
Vintage
Current calendar year, refreshed weekly
Refresh cadence
Every 7 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:19:57 UTC
Rows held
124
Transformations
Complaints per $1bn of FDIC-reported deposits. Companies are matched to FDIC certificates through a hand-maintained crosswalk only.
Missing values
A company absent from the crosswalk is left unscored. We never guess an institution match.
Outliers
Ratios above 10,000 per $1bn are flagged as a probable matching error.
Known limitations
Complaint volume reflects consumer awareness as well as service quality, and deposits are not a customer count.

FDIC insured institutions

FDIC BankFind
Stored in
fdic_institutions
Series / identifiers
BankFind institution records (CERT key)
Vintage
Latest quarterly call report
Refresh cadence
Every 7 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 16:20:05 UTC
Rows held
4,250
Transformations
Assets and deposits stored in $ millions as filed.
Missing values
Fields the bank did not file are stored null and shown as 'not published'.
Outliers
None applied; filings are authoritative.
Known limitations
Call reports lag the quarter end by several weeks.

FDIC branch network

FDIC Summary of Deposits
Stored in
fdic_branches
Series / identifiers
Branch office records by CERT
Vintage
Latest Summary of Deposits
Refresh cadence
Every 14 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 16:12:25 UTC
Rows held
76,063
Transformations
Deduplicated on institution, address, city and state.
Missing values
Branches without coordinates are kept but excluded from maps.
Outliers
Coordinates outside the US bounding box are dropped.
Known limitations
Summary of Deposits is annual, so very recent openings and closures are missing.

HUD Fair Market Rents

HUD User, Fair Market Rents
Stored in
hud_fmr
Series / identifiers
FMR by county and bedroom count
Vintage
Current fiscal year
Refresh cadence
Every 30 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:37:12 UTC
Rows held
3,195
Transformations
Income needed at 30% of gross income is derived from the FMR.
Missing values
Counties without an FMR record are omitted.
Outliers
Rents outside $100–$10,000 a month are flagged.
Known limitations
FMR is a payment standard at the 40th percentile, not an average asking rent.

Census ACS county and ZIP profiles

U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Stored in
county_data, zcta_data, state_data
Series / identifiers
B19013, B25077, B25064, B01003 and related ACS tables
Vintage
Most recent ACS 5-year estimates
Refresh cadence
On demand
Last successful refresh
Not yet recorded
Rows held
37,048
Transformations
None on the published estimate. Derived indices are computed separately and labelled as ours.
Missing values
Suppressed estimates are stored null; a page with a null estimate shows a dash, never a guess.
Outliers
Median household income outside $5,000–$500,000 and median rent outside $100–$10,000 are treated as bad rows and the page is de-indexed.
Known limitations
5-year estimates are an average over five years, carry margins of error, and are not comparable with single-year figures.
Stored in
college_scorecard
Series / identifiers
UNITID-keyed institution records
Vintage
Latest annual release
Refresh cadence
Every 30 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:31 UTC
Rows held
5,451
Transformations
Monthly payment and payback years derived from median debt and earnings.
Missing values
Institutions missing earnings or debt are shown without the derived figures.
Outliers
Earnings and debt outside plausible bounds are excluded from rankings.
Known limitations
Earnings cover federally aided students only, not the whole cohort.
Stored in
energy_prices
Series / identifiers
Electricity residential average price; natural gas residential price
Vintage
Latest annual release
Refresh cadence
Every 7 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 16 Sep 2026 22:17:33 UTC
Rows held
1,351
Transformations
None.
Missing values
States without a gas price show electricity only.
Outliers
Prices outside published historical ranges are flagged.
Known limitations
Annual averages hide seasonal and tariff variation.

BEA regional price parities and per-capita income

Bureau of Economic Analysis
Stored in
bea_regional
Series / identifiers
Regional Price Parities (all items, housing, goods); personal income per capita
Vintage
Latest annual release
Refresh cadence
Every 30 days
Last successful refresh
Wed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:41 UTC
Rows held
3,596
Transformations
None.
Missing values
Where BEA does not publish, a housing-based estimate is used and labelled as such.
Outliers
Parities outside 70–140 are flagged.
Known limitations
Annual, and metro parities lag state figures by a year.

Zillow Home Value Index

Zillow Research
Stored in
market_series_obs
Series / identifiers
ZHVI national and state series
Vintage
Latest monthly release
Refresh cadence
Every 7 days
Last successful refresh
Sat, 12 Sep 2026 10:17:13 UTC
Rows held
24,691
Transformations
None.
Missing values
Missing months are absent.
Outliers
Month-on-month moves beyond ±10% are flagged.
Known limitations
ZHVI is a smoothed valuation index, not a transaction price.

Think Bigger Today proprietary indices

Think Bigger Today indices
Stored in
mortgage_stress_index, tcoli_index, financial_stress_score, real_salary_index
Series / identifiers
Derived — see each index page for its formula and weights
Vintage
Recomputed monthly from the inputs above
Refresh cadence
Every 1 days
Last successful refresh
Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:17:12 UTC
Rows held
35,140
Transformations
Percentile ranks across the full national distribution. Weights are published on each index page.
Missing values
A geography missing any input is not scored rather than partially scored.
Outliers
A computation is rejected if more than 25% of rows land on the floor or the ceiling, because a saturated scale is not ranking anything.
Known limitations
These are our own composites, not official statistics. They inherit every limitation of their inputs.

Every source agency

Across the whole site we ingest 22 public datasets, each stored with its coverage and observation vintage.

Federal Reserve (FRED)

Mortgage, savings, CD, auto, credit card and personal loan rate series, national.

Coverage: National weekly and monthly series, full history stored per observation

Source observation: latest weekly and monthly observations, 2026

FRED · St. Louis Fed

U.S. Census Bureau (ACS)

Income, rent, home values and ownership rates.

Coverage: All 50 states plus DC, 3,100+ counties, 33,000+ ZIP code tabulation areas

Source observation: 5-year estimates, 2023 vintage

Census · ACS

FDIC

Bank financials, deposit market share and insured branch locations.

Coverage: All FDIC-insured institutions, 75,000+ branch locations

Source observation: quarterly call reports, 2026 Q1

FDIC · BankFind API

HUD

Fair Market Rents by bedroom count.

Coverage: Every county and metro FMR area nationwide

Source observation: fiscal year 2026

HUD · FMR datasets

College Scorecard

Cost, completion, post-graduation earnings and return on investment.

Coverage: 5,400+ US colleges and universities

Source observation: most recent release, 2024-25

College Scorecard · data

Bureau of Labor Statistics (OEWS)

Occupation employment and wage levels.

Coverage: All states and covered metro areas, by occupation

Source observation: OEWS, May 2024

BLS · OEWS

CFPB (consumer complaints)

Complaint volumes, product mix and company response records.

Coverage: Rolling 24 months of complaints by institution and product

Source observation: rolling 24 months to 2026

CFPB · complaint database

CMS Marketplace

Benchmark ACA premiums on the federal exchange. State-based exchanges are flagged as unavailable rather than estimated.

Coverage: 2,055 counties on the federally facilitated Marketplace

Source observation: plan year 2026

CMS · Marketplace data

IRS Statistics of Income

Aggregated returns, adjusted gross income and deduction patterns.

Coverage: 27,588 ZIP code areas

Source observation: tax year 2022 filings

IRS · SOI ZIP code data

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Regional price parities and personal income per capita — our primary cost-of-living index.

Coverage: 52 states and territories plus 387 metropolitan areas

Source observation: RPP and personal income, 2024

BEA · Regional price parities

FEMA National Risk Index

Expected annual loss, natural hazard exposure and community resilience scores.

Coverage: 3,232 counties

Source observation: release 2023 (v1.19.0)

FEMA · NRI data

FHFA House Price Index

House price levels and appreciation rates.

Coverage: 20,925 ZIP, county and metro areas

Source observation: annual and quarterly series, 2000-2025

FHFA · HPI datasets

EIA

Residential electricity and natural gas prices.

Coverage: 52 states and territories

Source observation: monthly series, 2000-2025

EIA · open data

Social Security Administration (SSA)

Retirement and disability beneficiary counts and average payments.

Coverage: All states plus 3,224 counties

Source observation: OASDI beneficiaries, December 2025

SSA · OASDI statistics

USDA Food Plans

Monthly food cost by household composition, including the official Alaska and Hawaii adjustments.

Coverage: National plans by age and sex, with Alaska and Hawaii uplifts

Source observation: June 2026 report

USDA · Cost of Food reports

NCUA

Credit union financials and branch locations, complementing FDIC coverage.

Coverage: All federally insured credit unions and their branches

Source observation: quarterly call reports, 2026 Q1

NCUA · call report data

CFPB HMDA

Mortgage applications with approval and denial rates by lender and place.

Coverage: Aggregated by county and census tract, nationwide

Source observation: loan application register, 2024

HMDA · data browser

National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC)

Average car and homeowners insurance premiums, with the liability, collision and comprehensive split.

Coverage: All 50 states plus DC, state averages only — NAIC does not publish county premiums and we never break the figure down further

Source observation: Auto Insurance Database Report and Homeowners Insurance Report, latest releases

NAIC · research and actuarial reports

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

The federal poverty line by household size, used to work out marketplace subsidy eligibility and net premiums.

Coverage: Three official schedules: the 48 contiguous states and DC, Alaska, and Hawaii

Source observation: 2026 guidelines (Federal Register, 15 January 2026)

HHS · poverty guidelines

Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI)

Local consumer price inflation, shown only for counties inside the metro area the BLS actually prices.

Coverage: 23 metropolitan areas published as size class A, with the counties each covers

Source observation: monthly CPI-U series, latest release

BLS · regional CPI

U.S. Treasury (Fiscal Data)

Official I-Bond fixed, inflation and composite rates, plus average interest rates on marketable Treasury securities.

Coverage: Every published I-Bond rate period and monthly average rates by security type

Source observation: current rate period, refreshed each announcement

Treasury · Fiscal Data I-Bond rates

CMS Medicare

Medicare Advantage plan counts and average premiums, Part D premiums, and the standard Part B premium.

Coverage: Counties present in the CMS landscape files, alongside the national Part B figure

Source observation: plan year 2026

CMS · Medicare landscape files

Refresh registry: every scheduled job

All 26 jobs registered on this site, with the cadence they are scheduled at and the timestamps recorded in our database. A job that has never run shows an empty history rather than being hidden.

JobKeyCadenceLast runLast successStatus
Bank & credit union directory rebuildinstitutions-rebuildEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 17:17:28 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 17:17:28 UTCok
BEA regional income & price paritiesbea-regionalEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:41 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:41 UTCok
BLS metro CPIcpi-metroEvery 3 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 08:17:02 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 08:17:02 UTCok
BLS state unemploymentbls-unemploymentEvery 1 daysThu, 17 Sep 2026 05:17:18 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 05:17:18 UTCok
Census ACS county profilescensus-countiesEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:37:16 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:37:16 UTCok
CFPB consumer complaintscfpb-complaintsEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 16:19:57 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 16:19:57 UTCok
CFPB filer to FDIC certificate crosswalk (top 120 by complaint volume)cfpb-crosswalkEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 23:17:10 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 23:17:10 UTCok
College Scorecardcollege-scorecardEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:31 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:38:31 UTCok
Deposit rates: FDIC national file & bank rate pagesbank-ratesEvery 12 hoursThu, 17 Sep 2026 14:17:17 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 14:17:17 UTCok
EIA energy priceseia-energyEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 22:17:33 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 22:17:33 UTCok
FDIC branch networkfdic-branchesEvery 14 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 16:12:25 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 16:12:25 UTCok
FDIC Call Report denominators (deposits, card receivables, 1-4 family)fdic-call-reportEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 23:17:18 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 23:17:18 UTCok
FDIC insured institutionsfdic-institutionsEvery 7 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 16:20:05 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 16:20:05 UTCok
FEMA disaster declarationsfema-declarationsEvery 7 daysThu, 17 Sep 2026 00:17:30 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 00:17:30 UTCok
FRED rates & macro series (daily)fred-dailyEvery 12 hoursThu, 17 Sep 2026 13:17:46 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 13:17:46 UTCok
Freshness events: detect material moves in official figuresfreshness-eventsEvery 6 hoursThu, 17 Sep 2026 09:17:05 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 09:17:05 UTCok
HUD fair market rentshud-fmrEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:37:12 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:37:12 UTCok
IRS statistics of incomeirs-soiEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 22:16:57 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 22:16:57 UTCok
Research study runs (friction index, deserts, mortgage gap, rent, real salary)study-runsEvery 1 daysThu, 17 Sep 2026 02:17:11 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 02:17:11 UTCok
SEC EDGAR bank depositssec-bank-depositsEvery 7 daysSat, 12 Sep 2026 11:17:03 UTCSat, 12 Sep 2026 11:17:03 UTCok
Source verification pass (canaries)source-verificationEvery 1 daysWed, 16 Sep 2026 22:17:29 UTCWed, 16 Sep 2026 22:17:29 UTCok
Tax constants: seed & watch the IRS for a newer yeartax-constantsEvery 1 daysThu, 17 Sep 2026 01:17:36 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 01:17:36 UTCok
Template boilerplate monitor (monthly, 100 pages per template)template-diversityEvery 30 daysWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:40:31 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 21:40:31 UTCok
Think Bigger Today composite indicescomposite-indicesEvery 1 daysThu, 17 Sep 2026 04:17:12 UTCThu, 17 Sep 2026 04:17:12 UTCok
US Treasury I bonds & average ratestreasuryEvery 1 daysSat, 12 Sep 2026 08:17:38 UTCWed, 09 Sep 2026 22:16:59 UTCerror
Zillow Home Value Index (national & states)zillow-zhviEvery 7 daysSat, 12 Sep 2026 10:17:13 UTCSat, 12 Sep 2026 10:17:13 UTCok

Complaint indices: formula and universe

We publish three product-specific complaint indices instead of one blended score. Each divides one CFPB product's complaints by the balance-sheet line that actually carries that product on the institution's FDIC Call Report, so the rate can be recomputed from two public files.

  • Deposit Complaint Index = checking/savings complaints ÷ total deposits ($bn, Call Report DEP)
  • Card Complaint Index = credit-card complaints ÷ credit-card receivables ($bn, LNCRCD)
  • Mortgage Complaint Index = mortgage complaints ÷ 1-4 family residential loans ($bn, LNRERES)

Universe: FDIC-insured institutions we hold a Call Report for, with at least $1bn on the denominator line. Credit unions file with the NCUA on a different schedule and are not pooled with banks. Every published figure carries its rank and the size of the ranked group; there is no 0-100 complaint score anywhere on the site.

Download all three indices (CSV) · Download the CFPB-to-FDIC entity crosswalk (CSV)

The calculation, step by step

  1. 1. Base rate. We take the most recent Freddie Mac 30-year fixed observation. FHA loans use the FHA series and loans above the $806,500 conforming limit use the jumbo series.
  2. 2. Loan-to-value. Your down payment sets the LTV, which decides which Fannie Mae pricing band applies.
  3. 3. Credit adjustment. We add the published LLPA add-on for your credit band and LTV band. VA loans carry none.
  4. 4. Range and payment. We show a quarter-point band either side to reflect lender-to-lender variation, then compute principal and interest over 360 months.
  5. 5. Market context. We compare the base rate with the 10-year Treasury to tell you whether today's spread is elevated, normal or compressed.

What we checked against the source, and when

Storing a number is not the same as knowing it is still right. Every day we re-read a sample of figures straight from the publisher and compare them with what we hold. A difference beyond tolerance is shown here, and the affected figure is hidden from the page until it is resolved.

Latest verification pass, one row per checked figure.
FigureOursSourceResultChecked
Maricopa County, AZ — median household income8067580675Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Los Angeles County, CA — median household income8341183411Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Miami-Dade County, FL — median household income6421564215Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Cook County, IL — median household income7830478304Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Harris County, TX — median household income7078970789Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Bank of America — complaints filed1366717272Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
Capital One — complaints filed24350Not published by the source16 Sept 2026
Chase — complaints filed1484918499Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
Citibank — complaints filed1326316545Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
Wells Fargo — complaints filed1316116200Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
CA — residential electricity price32.5434.74Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
NY — residential electricity price26.3929.49Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
TX — residential electricity price15.4715.94Differs — figure hidden16 Sept 2026
Bank of America — total deposits21218042121804Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Wells Fargo Bank — total deposits15635341563534Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Ally Bank — total deposits156614156614Matches the source16 Sept 2026
JPMorgan Chase Bank — total deposits28202842820284Matches the source16 Sept 2026
Citibank — total deposits15475861547586Matches the source16 Sept 2026
1-year Treasury constant maturity4.374.37Matches the source16 Sept 2026
10-year Treasury constant maturity4.974.97Matches the source16 Sept 2026
30-year fixed mortgage6.766.76Matches the source16 Sept 2026
IRS — 401(k) contribution limits2026Source unreachable17 Sept 2026
IRS — annual inflation adjustments2026Source unreachable17 Sept 2026
Stored tax constants match the published Revenue Procedures9898Matches the source17 Sept 2026
1-year Treasury constant maturity4.374.37Matches the source16 Sept 2026

Oldest observation currently published anywhere on the site: Market series sec_deposits_c, observed 2011-03-31 (5649 days ago).

7 figures are currently hidden rather than shown unverified.

Think Bigger Today is not a lender, bank, insurer or licensed adviser. Estimates on this site are informational and are not an offer of credit. Verify every figure with a licensed professional before making a financial decision.

Think Bigger Today keeps its editorial standards independent of commercial relationships. This review was written by our team using publicly available information, including regulatory filings and published rate sheets. the named company did not review, approve or endorse it, and is not responsible for its accuracy. Companies that work with us commercially get no preferential coverage, scoring or placement. This page may link to our free matching service, for which we can be paid a referral fee — that fee never decides what we publish, and you may or may not be matched with the named company. Figures can change without notice; always confirm the current terms with the provider. Nothing here is financial, legal or tax advice.